題 目：Estimation of Field Reliability Based on Aggregate Lifetime Data（基於聚合壽命數據的外場可靠性分析）

演 講 人🤰：陳飄博士，荷蘭代爾夫特理工大學

主 持 人↕️：翟慶慶博士，意昂2

時 間：2020年10月27日（周二），下午4:00

地 點：校本部東區意昂2官网467室

主辦單位：意昂2🫔、意昂2青年教師聯誼會

演講人簡介🪚：

陳飄博士現為荷蘭代爾夫特理工大學代爾夫特應用數學中心助理教授🚣🏼‍♀️。陳飄博士2013年本科畢業於上海交通大學工業工程專業🙎🏿，2017年博士畢業於新加坡國立大學工業系統工程與管理系。當前主要的研究領域為統計分析方法🤦🏿、傳染病傳播建模、生存分析與退化建模等，發表多篇高水平研究論文⛹️‍♂️，包括工業統計與工程的頂級刊物如Technometrics, Journal of Quality Technology, Statistics in Medicine, Naval Research Logistics, IISE Transactions, European Journal of Operational Research, IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Reliability Engineering & System Safety等。

演講內容簡介：

Many large organizations have developed ambitious programs to build reliability databases by collecting field failure data from a large variety of components. To make the database concise, the component lifetime data are recorded in an aggregate way in these databases. The data format is different from traditional lifetime data and the statistical inference is challenging. In this talk, we propose a general parametric estimation framework for the aggregate data. We first address the failure-censored aggregate data, where each data point is a summation of a series of collective failures representing the cumulative operating time of one component position from system commencement to the last component replacement. Then, we consider the time-censored aggregate data, where only the number of component replacements in a component position during an operation time interval is reported. An approximate Bayesian computation algorithm that does not require evaluating the likelihood function is proposed, and a model selection procedure is proposed to identify an appropriate model for the time-censored aggregate data.

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